In May 2016, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri declined to 3.08 GEL, which is 2.7% lower month-on-month (that is compared to April 2016), but 7% higher year-on-year (compared to May 2015).

Georgian retail food prices are up 1.1% y-o-y (May 2016 vs. May 2015) and 1.0% down m-o-m (compared to last month). Compared to mid-May, cheese, apple and carrot experienced the biggest price declines of 8.5%, 8.4 %, and 7.1%, respectively. The prices of cabbage, buckwheat, and peach are up by 8.3%, 8.3%, and 7.1%, respectively.

The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2016 was revised downward from 5.0% to 4.2%. Our first prediction of GDP growth for the third quarter is 4.3%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2016. The Q1 growth rate stands at 2.3%, which is 0.6 percentage points below the forecast.

In May 2016, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri declined to 3.08 GEL, which is 2.7% lower month-on-month (that is compared to April 2016), but 7% higher year-on-year (compared to May 2015).

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 3.4% in March, while the growth rate for Q1 stood at 2.3% year over year. The estimated first quarter growth was 0.5 percentage points less than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter. We have updated our forecast for Q2 based on the new information and lowered it from 5% to 4.2%; at the same time, the Q3 forecast was revised upward to 4.3%.