According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 4.5% year over year (y/y) in Q2 2019, which fell slightly below the 4.8% growth predicted by ISET-PI’s GDP forecast from July. As economic growth constituted 4.9% y/y in Q1, the Georgian government’s 4.5% target of real GDP growth for 2019 does not seem overambitious.

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates of GDP growth, Georgia’s economy continues expanding at a moderately high pace, reaching 4.7% in the first quarter of 2019. Geostat’s Q1 growth figure fell below the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) 5% projection for annual growth in 2019. Meanwhile, based on the March data, ISET PI’s annual GDP growth forecast was 4.9%.

ISET-PI’s leading GDP indicator forecast, made at the beginning of the year, was more precise. At the time, we predicted 4.6% annual growth in the worst-case, “no growth” scenario, and 5.6% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. While our “middle-of-the-road” scenario predicted the exact 4.8% real GDP growth.

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018, and their estimated growth stands at 4.8%, which is 1.1 percentage point above ISET-PI’s most recent forecast.

According to Geostat’s figures, in the third quarter (Q3) of 2018, Georgia’s real GDP experienced growth of 4% year over year (YoY). Despite the slowdown of the growth rate compared to the previous quarters, IMF recently revised their forecast of economic growth for Georgia upwardly, from 4.5% to 5.0%. Forecasts for other international organizations and the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) remained the same, while ISET-PI, based on October’s data, expect annual growth in 2018 to be 4.6% YoY.