“Money Can’t Buy EU Love – European Funds and the Brexit Referendum” is the title of a paper by Dr. Jan Fidrmuc of Brunel University, and immediately evokes images of several months ago when Remain voters lined the streets of London with ‘We Love EU’ placards and gold and blue flags, as well as recent savage arguments in Brussels over the best course of action as the continent struggles to get over the shock of a member state opting to leave the union.

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 2.1% in July 2016, while the growth rate for Q2 stood at 2.3% year over year (YoY). The estimated second quarter growth was thus 1.6 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter.

In August 2016, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri increased to 3.15 GEL, which is 4.8 % higher month-on-month (m/m, that is compared to July 2016), but 9.6% lower year-on-year (y/y, compared to August 2015).

The average Sale Price (ASP) for residential properties has fallen consistently over last 3 months, to its current level of USD 836 [GEL 1829]. ASP rose to a year-high of USD 900 [GEL 2159] in December 2015 and fell to a year-low of USD 836 [GEL 1940] in August 2015 and June 2016. Appreciation of GEL since February 2016 exerted downward pressure on prices expressed in local currency decreasing at faster rates compared to prices in USD.

The growth forecast for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016 were revised upward by 0.5%. They now stand at 4.7% and 4.8% respectively. Based on the available data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 3.7%. This is our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters). Annual real GDP growth is predicted to be 2.9% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.4% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).