On Wednesday, January 23, ISET hosted the Governor of the National Bank of Georgia (NBG), Mr. Koba Gvenetadze. Mr. Gvenetadze delivered a profoundly informative lecture about the importance of monetary policies for economic well-being, discussing issues such as the importance of the price stability objective, inflation targeting frameworks (specifically why it is so crucial to avoid both deflation and high inflation), and the efficiency of monetary policy transmission mechanisms under a flexible exchange rate.

The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri in September 2018 was 3.56 GEL, which was 3.7% higher month-on-month (m/m, as compared to the previous month), and 2.1% lower year-on-year (y/y, as compared to the same month last year). However, khachapuri became cheaper for those earning in foreign currency as a result of the y/y depreciation of the lari relative to both the USD and EUR in September 2018.

Georgia’s real GDP growth constituted a strong 5.5% year over year (YoY) in the second quarter (Q2) of 2018, according to the Geostat figures. Recently this year, IMF and World Bank upped their forecast of economic growth for Georgia from 4.2% to 4.5%. In August, the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has also revised its forecast for 2018 from 4.8% to 5.5%. Meanwhile, ISET-PI expects annual growth in 2018 to be 6.3% YoY.

The unique cross-country study compares interest rates for a set of retail credit products in Georgia and select transition economies. Preliminary findings suggest that the cost of credit in Georgia is lower than in the CIS countries which have been covered by the survey (namely, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and in many cases Armenia) while it’s somewhat higher compared to a cohort of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEE) - this is true especially for local currency loans.

Among the pleasant surprises early this year, were the figures for Georgia’s economic growth in 2017. According to GeoStat estimates, Georgia’s real GDP grew by 4.8% year over year (YoY) in 2017. This result moderately surpassed the ADB, EBRD, IMF, and World Bank’s last growth projections of 4.2%, 3.9% 4.0%, and 3.5% growth, respectively. NBG's 4.5% growth projection also slightly underestimated Georgia’s economic growth in 2017. The real winner in this race was ISET-PI’s annual GDP growth forecast.