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The CCI is getting back on track. The highly anticipated decline observed last month has been reversed. The Consumer Confidence Index has increased from -32.5 in October to -31 in November (by 1.5 index points).
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Recently, Geostat released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2021. The Q1 and Q2 growth rates were revised upward to -4.1% (by 0.4 ppt) and downward to 28.9% (by 1 ppt) respectively. The real GDP growth rate amounted to 6.9% year-on-year for October 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first ten months of 2021 was 10.5%.
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The CCI is falling again. After the increase of consumer confidence in September, it dropped to a level similar to June, before the trend had reversed over the remaining summer months. The CCI decreased from -29.5 in September to -32.5 in October, with both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index moving downwards.
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The CCI is catching up. After decreasing consumer confidence during the summer, the CCI rose by 4.7 index points in September (from -34.2 in August to -29.5 in September). Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index moved upwards in tandem. The Present Situation Index increased by 3 index points, and the Expectations Index by 6.3.
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Consumer confidence decreases over the summer. After the upward trend observed starting in April, consumer confidence fell in July and August to almost equal levels, with a slight increase in August. In July, the overall index decreased by 2.3 points, from -32.1 in June to -34.4 in July. In August, it slightly increased to -34.2.