The purpose of this event was to have a discussion about the potential of the tourism sector to improve well-being and reduce poverty in rural areas of Georgia, as well to discuss the contribution the development of large hotels in peripheral touristic destinations can make to inclusive growth in local communities. The follow up activity of this dialogue was an excursion to the Kazbegi Municipality on July 19.
In the first part of this article, I described some of the adverse incentives resulting from a social welfare system. Then I argued that according to Simon Kuznets' famous paradigm, increasing inequality is hardly evitable when a country enters a growth trajectory (as Georgia did in 2003), and I reasoned that it is at least an ambivalent (not to say questionable) policy for Georgia, at its current state of development, to fight inequality by social welfare measures. In this vein, the article seemed to advocate that Georgia might better follow the “Asian” approach of “develop first, redistribute later”.
The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 7.5% to 7.7%. The growth forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 7.1% to 7.5%.
The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.1%. Meanwhile, Geostat has released the GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2014 and its preliminary estimates for April. These are 7.4% and 2.7% respectively. The April growth rate seems to be very low in relation to our forecast, but this low growth figure is most likely due to the relatively high GDP increase in April last year.
One day in my village, I saw our neighbors carrying TV sets, refrigerators, parabolic antennas, and washing machines out of their house. Soon I found out that they were hiding all that stuff from the Social Service Agency (SSA) that was about to check eligibility for social benefits. Later, when I spoke with some other villagers, it turned out that some families had even sold their cows to become eligible for social assistance.