In the last two weeks, the lari depreciated, once again, against the US dollar. Georgian currency lost about eight tetri against its American counterpart, causing quite a stir in the media, among political groups and economic experts. While government authorities claimed that the recent developments are short-term fluctuations driven by negative expectations, Turkish lira depreciation, dollar’s global strengthening, and are therefore not connected to the fundamentals of the Georgian economy, the members of the opposition were quick to blame incompetent fiscal and monetary policy.

In March 2019, the national average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri fell to 3.51 GEL, which is 0.8% lower month-over-month (since February 2019), however it is also 1.1% lower year-over-year (in comparison to March 2018). The main contributors to the MoM deflation within the Khachapuri Index were cheese down by 1.9%, milk by 0.8%, and butter by 1.3%.

On Wednesday, January 23, ISET hosted the Governor of the National Bank of Georgia (NBG), Mr. Koba Gvenetadze. Mr. Gvenetadze delivered a profoundly informative lecture about the importance of monetary policies for economic well-being, discussing issues such as the importance of the price stability objective, inflation targeting frameworks (specifically why it is so crucial to avoid both deflation and high inflation), and the efficiency of monetary policy transmission mechanisms under a flexible exchange rate.

The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri in September 2018 was 3.56 GEL, which was 3.7% higher month-on-month (m/m, as compared to the previous month), and 2.1% lower year-on-year (y/y, as compared to the same month last year). However, khachapuri became cheaper for those earning in foreign currency as a result of the y/y depreciation of the lari relative to both the USD and EUR in September 2018.

Georgia’s real GDP growth constituted a strong 5.5% year over year (YoY) in the second quarter (Q2) of 2018, according to the Geostat figures. Recently this year, IMF and World Bank upped their forecast of economic growth for Georgia from 4.2% to 4.5%. In August, the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has also revised its forecast for 2018 from 4.8% to 5.5%. Meanwhile, ISET-PI expects annual growth in 2018 to be 6.3% YoY.