The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has not changed since last month and remains at 2.6%. The first forecast for the fourth quarter growth of 2015 has been targeted at 3.8%.
ISET Policy Institute is the only member think tank of Asian Think Tanks Network from Georgia. The network involves cooperation among key think tanks in Asia and the Pacific to share knowledge on development experiences and policy lessons. Its members are Asian think tanks working on sustainable development and inclusive growth.
It is easy to understand what it means for an economy to be weak or strong. We know that a strong economy is characterized by low unemployment and high growth rates. Other desirable traits are, for example, low levels of poverty and income inequality, when all citizens enjoy reasonable standards of living.
Given the newly revised Q3 forecast, the annual growth in 2015 is expected to be 2.6% in the worst-case, or “no growth” scenario, and 3% in the best-case, or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).
After relatively high GDP growth in February and March, the Georgian economy slowed down considerably in April. According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, GDP grew by only 0.9% annually in the reporting month. Consequently, in the first four months of 2015 the Georgian economy expanded by 2.6%. ISET’s GDP forecast for the second quarter of 2015 is 5.1%, which seems to be rather overoptimistic given the grim start of the quarter.