After reaching negative growth in June 2013 the y-o-y growth of real GDP started to improve slowly and already in November 2013 the growth rate catches up to its previous 2011-2012 higher numbers. According to the GeoStat primary estimations, the average growth rate of the previous three months (November, December 2013, and January 2014) is approximately 8.1% (see Chart 1).

The growth forecast for the 4th quarter of 2013 has been revised downward from 5.2%to 4.9%. The forecast for the first quarter of 2014 has also been reduced from 6.5% to 5.7%. Given the Geostat data for the first three quarters and the ISET-PI forecast for the 4th quarter, the annual growth rate for 2013 is projected to be 2.6%.

2013 was a challenging period for Georgia. Elections, political and policy instability contributed to the significant slowdown in economic growth. Apart from the internal factors, external factors also contributed to the slowdown. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, world economic growth has decreased from 3.2% to 2.9% and IMF forecasts that the world will catch higher growth rates in the following years.

In our last week’s article, we examined Georgia’s economic growth in the 12 months before the 2012 parliamentary elections. In particular, we reviewed the popular argument that much of this economic growth was driven by the “political business cycle” effect of public (over)spending prior to the elections.

On March 4, 2013, Andrew Burns, Manager of Global Macroeconomics in the Development Prospects Group of the World Bank, presented a report – “Global Economic Prospects – Assuring Growth Over Medium Term”, for ISETers.