In the world of the 21st century, the number of people living without electricity in their homes is 1.3 billion. Even among those who have access, many do not own basic assets such as refrigerators, motorized transport, or washing machines. However, it is anticipated that over the next several decades, wide-scale poverty alleviation programs, as well as continued economic growth, will lift the incomes of many of the world’s poor.

People who decide to leave their country and test their luck elsewhere are usually no random sample of a population. In his 1987 paper “Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants” (American Economic Review 77, pp. 531-553), Harvard Political Scientist George J. Borjas discusses the so-called self-selection of migrants. As of 1987, the standard view among migration economists was that migrants, at least those who came to the United States, belonged to the “upper tails” of the income distributions in their home countries.

Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.7% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 3.4% real GDP increase in 2016.

As argued by Omer Moav and Zvika Neeman in a 2012 paper (Moav taught at ISET in the past), boasting is a way to pretend that one has hidden income (“Saving Rates and Poverty: The Role of Conspicuous Consumption and Human Capital”, Economic Journal 122, pp. 933-956). While people may have a rough idea of the incomes of their neighbors, colleagues, friends, and other people they interact with, they usually do not know exactly how much they make.

Early next month, the eyes of the world will briefly turn to Switzerland. On June 5th, the citizens of this prosperous country will vote in an unprecedented referendum on the idea of guaranteeing each citizen a basic income equivalent to roughly 30,000 USD per year.