Given the newly revised Q3 forecast, the annual growth in 2015 is expected to be 2.6% in the worst-case, or “no growth” scenario, and 3% in the best-case, or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).

After relatively high GDP growth in February and March, the Georgian economy slowed down considerably in April. According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, GDP grew by only 0.9% annually in the reporting month. Consequently, in the first four months of 2015 the Georgian economy expanded by 2.6%. ISET’s GDP forecast for the second quarter of 2015 is 5.1%, which seems to be rather overoptimistic given the grim start of the quarter.

The growth forecast for the second quarter of 2015 was revised slightly downward from 5.1% to 5.0%. The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has been targeted at 5.3%. Meanwhile, Geostat updated its GDP growth estimate for April 2015 to 0.9%.

ISET-PI analyzed the potential for Georgia to specialize in the production of several types of engineering goods: Insulated wire and cable; Pleasure and sport vessels; Cargo containers; Derricks, cranes, and straddle carriers.

Oil prices have endured a large and persistent decrease due to increased worldwide production and the weakness of global demand. Prices are soon expected to stabilize around USD 60/barrel. ISET-PI and GET have focused on the improved terms of trade that Georgia could potentially see due to its high share of energy imports compared to its GDP indicators.