16
June
2016
ISET students Ana Akoposhvili and Ketevan Melkadze came second place in the Mariam Kutelia Research Grant competition. They took part during their internship at a USAID-funded project, Restoring Efficiency to Agricultural Production. The purpose of the competition was to write proposals on how to improve the current state of the Georgian agricultural sector. The ISET students were awarded another paid internship at the Agricultural Policy Research Center (APRC) between April 15 and June 15.
15
June
2016
On June 14, Maksim Obrizan, a Professor of the Kiev School of Economics, gave a presentation entitled “The Impact of War on Happiness: The Case of Ukraine” at ISET. According to Mr. Obrizan, his work was influenced by cases and papers described in Frey and Stutzer (2002) and Stutzer and Frey (2012), and the impact of wars according to Blattman and Miguel (2010). This has become a particularly poignant topic for Professor Orbizan, as more than 100 Ukrainian soldiers have committed suicide since coming off the front line in the ongoing war against Russian-backed separatists. Previous papers on war and happiness suggest that in 44 countries, the intensity of the war reduces happiness (Welsh 2008).
30
May
2016
The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2016 was revised downward from 5.0% to 4.2%. Our first prediction of GDP growth for the third quarter is 4.3%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2016. The Q1 growth rate stands at 2.3%, which is 0.6 percentage points below the forecast.
20
May
2016
According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 3.4% in March, while the growth rate for Q1 stood at 2.3% year over year. The estimated first quarter growth was 0.5 percentage points less than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter. We have updated our forecast for Q2 based on the new information and lowered it from 5% to 4.2%; at the same time, the Q3 forecast was revised upward to 4.3%.
20
April
2016
According to GeoStat estimates, real GDP grew by 2.6% year over year in February 2016. This growth rate is an improvement over the 0.8% growth observed in the previous months. Still, in order to reach the predicted quarterly 2.9% growth (the ISET-PI forecast for Q1 real growth), the economy would have to have expanded by at least 5.4% in March. While the actual growth for March is likely to be lower than that figure, the increases in the consumer and business confidence indices (CCI, BCI) in the last month can be interpreted as good signs for the economy going forward.
