We have recently updated the GDP series (the dependent variable in our model), using the revised GDP growth rates available from Geostat. Based on the new data, the forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter now stands at 3.5%.
Although the mining sector of Georgia only accounts for a small share of GDP, around one quarter of Georgia’s total exports are related to mining activities. Increased use of Georgia’s natural resources thus has the potential to benefit the economic development of the country as well as to contribute to public finances.
According to the most recent statistics, the Georgian economy is showing signs of stabilization in the last quarter of 2015. Economic growth increased to 3% year on year in October – about the same as the estimated average real GDP growth rate (2.8%) for the first ten months of 2015.
Retail food prices, as measured by ISET-PI’s FPI, increased by 0.4% in early December compared to mid-November. Prices are also up 2.2% year-on-year (y-o-y, that is compared to the December 2014). The largest increases were registered for eggplants (up 76%), cucumbers (52.1%) and greens (16.2%).
After the early signs of rebounding seen in Q3 2015, the Georgian Business Confidence Index (BCI) has lost 3 points (on [-100/100 scale])1 on the weakening of business expectations.