26
February
2015
On February 25th, ISET hosted Riikka Savolainen, Ph.D. from the Aalto University, Finland. Dr. Savolainen holds a master’s degree from the Helsinki School of Economics. Her research interests include applied microeconometrics and political economy and, more specifically, intra-party heterogeneity and candidate strategies. Her general interests include history and political philosophy.
16
January
2015
According to Geostat’s rapid growth estimates, Georgia’s real GDP declined by 0.5% in November 2014 (Chart 1). Despite this, growth in the first eleven months of 2014 was a robust 5%, which is certainly a much better result than most countries in the region could boast. The ISET fourth-quarter GDP forecast predicts 3.9% growth in the last three months of 2014.
16
December
2014
In October 2014, Georgia’s GDP growth slowed to 3.5% from 4.1% the month before. This slowdown is consistent with ISET-PI’s GDP forecast, according to which the economy is expected to increase by only 3.6% in the fourth quarter. Annual growth, however, is likely to be closer to the 5% mark. Given the sluggish growth dynamics of the global economy in 2014, this is a strong result for Georgia.
11
December
2014
Based on the October data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 1.1% to 3.6%. We have started to forecast the first quarter of 2015, with the initial forecast standing at 3.2%. Meanwhile, Geostat’s “rapid estimate” growth forecast for the month of October is 3.5%.
04
December
2014
Any observer of the Georgian economy would probably agree that the country has too many people employed (or, rather, under-employed) in agriculture. Historically, many countries have experienced a secular decline in the share of employment (and GDP) related to the agricultural sector. Yet, Georgia has seen limited structural change out of agriculture (other than, perhaps, into seasonal or permanent labor migration).
