On May 22, ISET hosted Francois Painchaud, the IMF Resident Representative in Georgia. Mr. Painchaud presented the 2017 May Regional Economic Outlook for the Caucasus and Central Asia, highlighting the three main areas of the global and regional environment, outlook and policy actions, and policy priorities.

ISET-PI’s forecast for the second quarter of 2017 was revised upward from 4.4% to 5.9%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2017. The Q1 growth rate stands at 5%, which is 1.8 percentage points above the forecast.

Nobel-winning economist James Heckman proclaimed that “the data speak for itself” after he carried out an experiment known as the 'Perry pre-School Project' and discovered that investing in high-quality preschool education brings returns of around 14 percent – a rate of return that is much higher than standard returns on stock market equity (7.2 percent).

We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on February’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 4.3% real GDP growth in 2017.

Georgia’s agri-food export is concentrated in few products and few undemanding markets, making it highly vulnerable to shocks on a small number of commodity and geographical markets. At the same time, the diversity of climatic conditions and ample water resources create significant growth and diversification potential for Georgian agriculture