
On Friday, February 20th, Jules Hugot from Sciences Po (Paris) gave a presentation of his job market paper "Trade Costs and the Two Globalizations: 1827-2012".

On February 19th, ISET hosted Lasha Chochua from the University of Bielefeld. Mr. Chochua presented the preliminary version of his paper "Endogenous Trade Policy in the Presence of Lobbying and Heterogeneously Ignorant Voters" coauthored with George Papava from the University of Chicago.

According to the latest GEOSTAT figures, merchandize exports from Georgia decreased by 1.63% between 2013 and 2014. This is certainly not great news for the country, but does it imply that Georgian goods have become less competitive on the world market? Recent trade data suggest that this is not necessarily the case.

In the past two weeks, Georgians have been waking up with a sense of déjà vu. In a matter of days, the Georgian currency lost over 8% of its value against the US dollar and reversed the course of appreciation against the euro. The lari winter blues are reminiscent of the last months of 2013, when, after a long period of stability, the lari lost about 5% of its value against the dollar in the course of ten weeks.

It now seems more and more likely that Eastern Donbas (the area currently controlled by the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics) will become a frozen conflict zone, a territory in which the Ukrainian government will have little power to enforce its laws and where slowly a parallel governance system, an unrecognized ‘quasi-state’, will emerge. In the absence of a viable military alternative, one option likely to be considered by Ukraine and its Western allies is to exercise ‘strategic patience’.