We have recently updated the GDP series (the dependent variable in our model), using the revised GDP growth rates available from Geostat. Based on the new data, the forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter now stands at 3.5%.
Although the mining sector of Georgia only accounts for a small share of GDP, around one quarter of Georgia’s total exports are related to mining activities. Increased use of Georgia’s natural resources thus has the potential to benefit the economic development of the country as well as to contribute to public finances.
According to the most recent statistics, the Georgian economy is showing signs of stabilization in the last quarter of 2015. Economic growth increased to 3% year on year in October – about the same as the estimated average real GDP growth rate (2.8%) for the first ten months of 2015.
Geostat has released its preliminary estimates of GDP growth for the third quarter. The estimated Q3 growth is 2.5%, only 0.1 percentage points below the ISET-PI forecasted value. The forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter now stands at 3.6%.
According to recently released statistics, the Georgian economy continued on a stable trajectory of low- single-digit growth in September and October. The rapid growth estimates for October show 3% GDP growth, definitely an improvement over the 2.2% growth in September. The estimated average real GDP growth rate in the first ten months of 2015 was 2.8% year on year.