The final growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has not changed significantly since last month (declining by only 0.02%) and remains at 2.6%. Similarly, the second growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2015 is still 3.8%.

In July 2015, domestic production in Georgia increased by 3% annually, maintaining a stable and positive trend. Consumer price inflation reached the highest value (4.9%) in two years. The 1 August 2015 increase in electricity tariffs is likely to put some additional upward pressure on consumer price inflation in the coming months.

The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has not changed since last month and remains at 2.6%. The first forecast for the fourth quarter growth of 2015 has been targeted at 3.8%.

Given the newly revised Q3 forecast, the annual growth in 2015 is expected to be 2.6% in the worst-case, or “no growth” scenario, and 3% in the best-case, or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).

After relatively high GDP growth in February and March, the Georgian economy slowed down considerably in April. According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, GDP grew by only 0.9% annually in the reporting month. Consequently, in the first four months of 2015 the Georgian economy expanded by 2.6%. ISET’s GDP forecast for the second quarter of 2015 is 5.1%, which seems to be rather overoptimistic given the grim start of the quarter.