Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2016. The estimated growth stands at 1.2%, which is 1.7% lower than the value forecasted in the last update of our model. Given the latest data, Georgian real GDP growth in 2016 is estimated as having been 2.2% (0.5 percentage points lower than projected by our model).
In the first half of January, Georgian retail food prices went up. Compared to mid-December, ISET’s Retail Food Price index experienced a significant 10.1% increase. Prices increased across key food commodities as a result of the holiday-related slump in demand. The Georgian lari depreciation applied additional upward pressure on the GEL prices of imported food products.
The year 2017 turned out to be a very fruitful one for ISET and the ISET Policy Institute. On January 17, Eric Livny, the President of ISET and the ISET Policy Institute, and Dimitri Kumsisvhili, the First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Georgia, signed an official memorandum of understanding between ISET Policy Institute and the Ministry of Finance.
Driven by the sharp seasonal increase in the price of Imeretian cheese, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian Khachapuri in December 2016 stood at 3.62 GEL. The Index reached its lowest value (3.51 GEL) in Batumi; the maximum was observed in Kutaisi and Tbilisi (3.75 GEL and 3.63 GEL, respectively). The average price of 3.62 GEL is 4.2% higher compared to the previous month (November 2016), and 4.0% lower compared to December of last year.
Between 1990 and 1994, the Georgian economy experienced one of the sharpest declines in economic activity in recent history, with GDP per capita falling by more than 70 percent. Since then, however, especially after 2003, it has been growing quite fast, with the Georgian GDP per capita overtaking the 1990 level in 2013. However, the Georgian agricultural sector, in the same period, has been characterized by a quite different trend.