We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 2.5% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 3.4% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 2.2% year over year (YoY) in 2016. This result fell behind the World Bank’s, IMF’s, and EBRD’s last growth projections of 3.4%. The NBG’s 3.5% growth projection from November also overestimated Georgia’s economic growth in 2016.

Whatever Kim Jong-un’s propaganda says about the greatness of his country, it is a fact that nobody immigrates to North Korea but almost everyone wants to get out. Likewise, whatever conservative Muslims say about the depraved West – there is a huge net migration out of Muslim countries into these rotten and decadent Western societies.

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2016. The estimated growth stands at 1.2%, which is 1.7% lower than the value forecasted in the last update of our model. Given the latest data, Georgian real GDP growth in 2016 is estimated as having been 2.2% (0.5 percentage points lower than projected by our model).

In 1991, the former finance minister of Chile, Alejandro Foxley, said in an interview: “We may not like the government that came before us. But they did many things right. We have inherited an economy that is an asset.”