ISET-PI’s forecast for the second quarter of 2017 was revised upward from 4.4% to 5.9%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2017. The Q1 growth rate stands at 5%, which is 1.8 percentage points above the forecast.

We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on February’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 4.3% real GDP growth in 2017.

This research paper intended to supplement and complement the following economic policy strategies and plans of the Georgian government in the areas of sustainable and balanced growth.

We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.

Have you ever heard about a mysterious law that predicts the size of a city? If you tell me the population of the largest city in a country, I can tell you the size of the second and third-biggest cities. In 1949, George Zipf came up with the simple theory called the rank-size rule, or “Zipf 's law.” Applied to the size of cities, this law says that the second city and following smaller cities should represent a proportion of the largest city.