Based on the October data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 1.1% to 3.6%. We have started to forecast the first quarter of 2015, with the initial forecast standing at 3.2%. Meanwhile, Geostat’s “rapid estimate” growth forecast for the month of October is 3.5%.
On December 5, ISET hosted Azim Sadikov, IMF Resident Representative in Georgia. Mr. Sadikov presented the 2014 October Regional Economic Outlook.
In the past two weeks, Georgians have been waking up with a sense of déjà vu. In a matter of days, the Georgian currency lost over 8% of its value against the US dollar and reversed the course of appreciation against the euro. The lari winter blues are reminiscent of the last months of 2013, when, after a long period of stability, the lari lost about 5% of its value against the dollar in the course of ten weeks.
Any observer of the Georgian economy would probably agree that the country has too many people employed (or, rather, under-employed) in agriculture. Historically, many countries have experienced a secular decline in the share of employment (and GDP) related to the agricultural sector. Yet, Georgia has seen limited structural change out of agriculture (other than, perhaps, into seasonal or permanent labor migration).
ISET Policy Institute was contracted by the OECD to assess selected policy dimensions of the EU Small Business Act for Georgia. In order to complete this task, ISET-PI conducted desk research of the existing literature and conducted interviews with government officials, private sector representatives and members of the SME community, including civil society.