We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 6.2% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 6.6% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 6.3% real GDP growth in 2017.

After the Rose Revolution, in the name of of economic growth, the Georgian government set aside environmental issues and focused on a quick economic recovery. This is understandable, as the Georgian economy was still recovering from the collapse of the early 90’s, and the pressure to accelerate the process was high. At that time, the existing environmental regulations were perceived as an additional constraint to faster growth, and as potentially fertile ground for corruption.

Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2017. The Q1 growth rate now stands at 5.1%, which is 1.6% above ISET-PI’s last forecasted value. Moreover, the average growth rate for the first five months of the year amounted to 4.5%.

According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s GDP in Q1 of 2017 grew by 5.0% YoY – the highest growth rate since Q3 2014. What lies behind such spectacular growth numbers? First and foremost, it stems from the genuine improvement in the economic situation in the region, which has resulted in increased exports, FDI, tourism, and remittances. Secondly, the sharp increase in the growth rate in December 2016 “lifted” the GDP base and allowed normal GDP improvements to look even better compared to last year’s levels.

On May 22, ISET hosted Francois Painchaud, the IMF Resident Representative in Georgia. Mr. Painchaud presented the 2017 May Regional Economic Outlook for the Caucasus and Central Asia, highlighting the three main areas of the global and regional environment, outlook and policy actions, and policy priorities.