On February 12th, ISET hosted Dr. Andrea Ciani from Bocconi University, who presented his job market paper "Export Quality Upgrading under Credit Constraints".

According to the latest GEOSTAT figures, merchandize exports from Georgia decreased by 1.63% between 2013 and 2014. This is certainly not great news for the country, but does it imply that Georgian goods have become less competitive on the world market? Recent trade data suggest that this is not necessarily the case.

Exporting the seeds of the Nordmann fir – a very popular species grown for Christmas trees – is a thriving and fiercely competitive Georgian industry, perhaps the only one in which Georgia has a near-monopoly of the European market. According to an industry expert, more than 80% of all Christmas trees sold in Europe have their origin in Racha (Tlugi and Ambrolauri) and Borjomi forests.

In October 2014, Georgia’s GDP growth slowed to 3.5% from 4.1% the month before. This slowdown is consistent with ISET-PI’s GDP forecast, according to which the economy is expected to increase by only 3.6% in the fourth quarter. Annual growth, however, is likely to be closer to the 5% mark. Given the sluggish growth dynamics of the global economy in 2014, this is a strong result for Georgia.

In the past two weeks, Georgians have been waking up with a sense of déjà vu. In a matter of days, the Georgian currency lost over 8% of its value against the US dollar and reversed the course of appreciation against the euro. The lari winter blues are reminiscent of the last months of 2013, when, after a long period of stability, the lari lost about 5% of its value against the dollar in the course of ten weeks.