In recent months, ISET‐PI has devoted considerable time to explore the reasons behind the sharp decline in annual real GDP growth in 2013 (from 6.2% in 2012 to 3.3%). With official data for the whole of 2013 finally becoming available, we are taking this opportunity to revisit our previous conclusions and offer new insights.

The growth forecast for the 4th quarter of 2013 has been revised downward from 5.2%to 4.9%. The forecast for the first quarter of 2014 has also been reduced from 6.5% to 5.7%. Given the Geostat data for the first three quarters and the ISET-PI forecast for the 4th quarter, the annual growth rate for 2013 is projected to be 2.6%.

While ISET’s Khachapuri Index continues to climb up in a perfectly predictable fashion – driven by the seasonal increase in the price of cheese – a bit of drama is being provided by the ups and downs in the price of eggs. According to ISET data, egg prices, which for a couple of years hovered around 29 tetri a piece, suddenly collapsed in June and July 2013 to a minimum of about 26 tetri.

2013 was a challenging period for Georgia. Elections, political and policy instability contributed to the significant slowdown in economic growth. Apart from the internal factors, external factors also contributed to the slowdown. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, world economic growth has decreased from 3.2% to 2.9% and IMF forecasts that the world will catch higher growth rates in the following years.

The purpose of this report is to present the Financial Soundness Indicators (FSI) data in a way that is accessible and easy to interpret by a wide array of stakeholders, and help them analyze the economic implications underlying the FSI concepts.