On August 20, 2015, a strong hailstorm hit Georgia, devastating crops and infrastructure in eastern Kakheti. In Kvareli alone, the hailstorm destroyed about 1,300ha of Saperavi and 1,000ha of Rkatsiteli grapes, affecting more than 500 families. This was only one in a string of natural disasters striking Georgian farmers in recent years.

According to the population projections of the United Nations (constant fertility scenario), by the end of this century, the Georgian people will count only 2.8 million. In 2013, Georgia has been among only 19 countries in the world with a population that decreased year on year. An aggravating factor is the sex ratio of babies, which in Georgia is heavily skewed towards males. While globally about 107 boys are born per 100 girls, in Georgia 111 boys are born per 100 girls, the fourth-highest ratio in the world.

Georgian consumer confidence suffered a major blow at the end of 2014, in the wake of the sharp Lari depreciation. Around February 2015, the Index found some support at the very low level of -35-30 points and has been slightly improving since then. In July 2015, this mildly positive trend was reversed, and in August, the Index dropped another 4.1 points to reach a new historical minimum of -38.4 points. Interestingly, this entire drop was driven by older respondents, those aged over 35. We will come back to this point later in the article.

In July 2015, domestic production in Georgia increased by 3% annually, maintaining a stable and positive trend. Consumer price inflation reached the highest value (4.9%) in two years. The 1 August 2015 increase in electricity tariffs is likely to put some additional upward pressure on consumer price inflation in the coming months.

The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has not changed since last month and remains at 2.6%. The first forecast for the fourth quarter growth of 2015 has been targeted at 3.8%.