21
March
2016
We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.0% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.
21
March
2016
According to GeoStat data, real GDP growth was 0.8% in January and 2.8% in February 2016. While these figures are by no means high, growth rates in the rest of the region are expected to be quite low this year. In this respect, in contrast to its neighbors, Georgia is performing reasonably well.
14
March
2016
Based on February data from three open bazaars in Tbilisi, the average cost of cooking one standard portion of Imeretian khachapuri stood at GEL3.47. Someone opting for the convenience of shopping in one of Tbilisi’s major supermarket chains, such as Carrefour, Fresco, Spar, or Goodwill, paid 4.40GEL (representing a premium of about 28%) for cooking exactly the same khachapuri.
07
March
2016
Using the panel data on the German and Ukrainian labor markets, Prof. Pignatti and his co-authors Thomas Dohmen (University of Bonn, Maastricht University, IZA and DIW, Berlin) and Hartmut Lehmann (University of Bologna, IZA and DIW, Berlin) show that risk attitudes have permanent (exogenous) determinants that are valid at different stages of economic development and in different structural contexts.
26
January
2016
We have recently updated the GDP series (the dependent variable in our model), using the revised GDP growth rates available from Geostat. Based on the November data, the forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 now stands at 3.4%. This is 0.1 percentage points lower than in the previous vintage of the forecast.
