The COVID-19 pandemic and consequent stringent lockdown measures have had a drastic toll on the Georgian economy. The economic downturn has significantly affected the resilience of local Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), whose sales decreased by almost 13% (YoY) in the first two quarters of 2020. These negative impacts of the economic contraction have been particularly severe for Women-led Small and Medium Enterprises (WSMEs).
For the fourth quarter of 2020, BCI decreased by 18.7 index points and reached -28.6 after a significant improvement in the previous quarter. Business confidence deteriorated across all sectors, except retail trade and financial. The largest decrease is observed in the construction sector. The negative change in BCI, for Q4 2020, is driven by significantly pessimistic future expectations.
In partnership with PMC Research, ISET Policy Institute is working on the project “Sector and Value Chain Analytics” under the USAID Economic Security Program, implemented by DAI. Using quantitative and qualitative analytical methods, the project team analyzes economic tendencies in the local and also regional/global context, competitiveness of local businesses, opportunities, and challenges in various targeted value chains.
For the third quarter of 2020, BCI increased by 17.3 index points and reached -9.9 after a significant deterioration in the previous quarter. Business confidence improved across all sectors, except manufacturing and service. The largest increase is observed in the construction sector. The positive change in BCI, for Q3 2020, is driven by significantly optimistic future expectations.
On 28 May, Georgia announced its fourth anti-crisis plan, in which the government will subsidize 4 percent of the interest rate of mortgage loans for five years. The subsidy will be issued for loans not exceeding 200,000 GEL and will only apply to those taking mortgages for the purchase of residential apartments that are newly built or under construction, from 1 June 2020 to 1 January 2021. The state will also ensure the completion of ongoing construction.