Geostat has revised its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2020. The estimated growth now stands at 2.2%, which is 0.7 percentage points above the average growth rate previously estimated for Q1. The real GDP growth rate contracted by 16.6% and 13.5% year-on-year in April and May 2020, respectively. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first five months of 2020 amounted to 5.4%.
Georgia reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic by immediately introducing aggressive measures. Closing international borders, declaring a state of emergency, shutting down public transportation, banning local travel and public gatherings, closing restaurants and shopping malls, and introducing a nighttime curfew—these are all instruments that were used by the country’s government and health authorities to stop the spread of the virus. As a result, the health system was not overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients.
The estimated real GDP declined by 16.6% in April 2020 yearly and by 3.6 percent in the first four months of 2020. In April, the estimated real growth compared to the same period of the previous year posted negative in almost all activities, except mining and quarrying. Moreover, VAT payers’ turnover, used in rapid estimations of economic growth, dropped by 32.8% annually over the same period.
While COVID-19 pandemic had a negative impact on the current investment expenditure of Georgian ICT companies, investment and hiring is set to increase in the future for most firms in this sector.
Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2020. The estimated growth stands at 2.2%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2019 reached 3.7%. ISET-PI predicted 4.7% and 5.4% growth for the first and second quarters of 2020 respectively, based on February 2020 data. This data does not yet fully account for the negative impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the national economy.