The emergence of GVC, global value chains, around more than two decades ago transformed the way economists think about countries’ comparative advantage and specialization in production. It has also transformed the understanding of what it takes for a country to be successfully integrated into world trade networks and derive maximum benefit from global trade.
BCI in the fourth quarter of 2019 has increased to 18.5 index points, which is 10.2 index points above the previous quarter. The largest increase in BCI was observed in retail trade, followed by the construction industry. In these sectors, the increase in BCI is driven by both increases in past performance and in raised expectations. On the contrary, agriculture is the one industry where BCI decreased.
Recently, GeoStat has released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2019. The Q3 growth rate now stands at 5.7%, which is 1.4% below ISET-PI’s last forecasted value. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first nine months of 2019 amounted to 5.0%.
This paper is the first to create a comprehensive mapping of the Global and Regional Value Chain participation for Georgia and other CAREC region countries using the Eora Multi-Regional Input-Output Model (MRIO). The paper was written with support from the CAREC Think Tank Network Research Grant.
On November 8, ISET was visited by Mr. Juha Kahkonen, Deputy Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the IMF, who gave a presentation on the fact that global trade tensions and slowing growth amongst key trading partners are affecting the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region.