In September 2014, the cost of cooking one Imeretian khachapuri gained 3.2% relative to August, reaching 3.35 GEL. Importantly, Khachapuri Index added much more than 13.7% in annual terms, suggesting that Georgia is beginning to experience inflation, at least as far as food prices are concerned.
Based on the data from August, the fifth update of the Q3 growth forecast was yet again revised downward from 3.7% to 2.2%. The second update of the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was also revised from 1.7% down to 0.4%.
The ISET Khachapuri Index continued moving along its upward seasonal trend, reaching 3.35 GEL in September 2014. This is 3.2% higher compared to August 2014 (m/m) and 13.7% higher compared to September 2013 (y/y). Such a sharp increase in prices was not unique to Khachapuri ingredients, however. As reported by GeoStat, the general Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) in September 2014 reached 1.2% in monthly terms and, what is more alarming, 4.8% relative to September of last year (y/y).
In September, sale prices for residential properties in Tbilisi declined significantly compared to the previous year (-8.6 %). In terms of area, Old Tbilisi continues to lead the price index, at 1,143 USD per m2 in September.
Based on July data we made the 4th update of the Q3 forecast, and it was revised down from -7.6%, down to 3.7%. We also begin to forecast the last quarter of 2014, the forecast is not promising, it is just 1.7%.