Based on the data from September, we have made the sixth update of the Q3 forecast. The Q3 growth forecast was revised upward from 2.2% to 4.1%. The third forecast for the last quarter of 2014 revised up from 0.4% to 1.1%

After consistent increases in two previous months, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri stayed at 3.35 GEL in October 2014, unexpectedly bringing the Khachapuri Index to a halt. The Index dropped 0.1 % month-on-month (compared to September 2014) and year-on-year (compared to October 2013).

The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian Khachapuri in November 2014 was 3.34 GEL, which is 0.2% lower month-on-month (m/m, that is compared to the previous month), and 2.4% lower year-on-year (y/y, that is compared to the same month of last year). However, Khachapuri became even cheaper for foreign currency earners because of a sudden GEL depreciation (m/m and y/y) relative to USD and EUR during the last two weeks of November.

The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri varied in September 2014 across Georgian cities from 3.01 GEL, the minimum observed in Telavi, to 3.55 GEL, the maximum observed in Tbilisi and Kutaisi. The average price was 3.35 GEL, which is 3.2% higher compared to the previous month (August 2014), and 13.7% higher compared to September of last year.

In the fourth quarter of 2014, the Business Confidence Index decreased and registered 24.9 on a scale of 100 points. This is down from the 40.4 recorded in the third quarter of the same year. The positive number indicates that the confidence factor among businesses is about 25 index points more positive than negative or neutral (e.g. a confidence index of 100 would have indicated that all firms in the sample reported a positive outlook.