The New Year is approaching, and Georgian housewives are already preparing for this great event. So does the ISET-Policy Institute. The special dish we have cooked for our readers is a New Year Supra Index. Served on the Georgian Supra Map, the Index shows the cost (in GEL) of a standard supra meal for a family of 5-6 persons in each one of Georgia’s regions.
We have recently updated the GDP series (the dependent variable in our model), using the revised GDP growth rates available from Geostat. Based on the new data, the forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter now stands at 3.5%.
According to the most recent statistics, the Georgian economy is showing signs of stabilization in the last quarter of 2015. Economic growth increased to 3% year on year in October – about the same as the estimated average real GDP growth rate (2.8%) for the first ten months of 2015.
Retail food prices, as measured by ISET-PI’s FPI, increased by 0.4% in early December compared to mid-November. Prices are also up 2.2% year-on-year (y-o-y, that is compared to the December 2014). The largest increases were registered for eggplants (up 76%), cucumbers (52.1%) and greens (16.2%).
After the early signs of rebounding seen in Q3 2015, the Georgian Business Confidence Index (BCI) has lost 3 points (on [-100/100 scale])1 on the weakening of business expectations.