After the early signs of rebounding seen in Q3 2015, the Georgian Business Confidence Index (BCI) has lost 3 points (on [-100/100 scale])1 on the weakening of business expectations.

Geostat has released its preliminary estimates of GDP growth for the third quarter. The estimated Q3 growth is 2.5%, only 0.1 percentage points below the ISET-PI forecasted value. The forecast for GDP growth in the fourth quarter now stands at 3.6%.

The average cost of cooking one standard portion of Imeretian Khachapuri increased to 3.66 GEL in November 2015. This is 1.4% higher m/m (compared to October 2015), and 9.6% higher y/y (compared to the same month of the previous year, November 2014). Given that it mostly consists of food prices that are subject to sharper seasonal fluctuations, the upward trend in Khachapuri Index is somewhat steeper than that of GeoStat’s official Consumer Price Index (CPI).

According to recently released statistics, the Georgian economy continued on a stable trajectory of low- single-digit growth in September and October. The rapid growth estimates for October show 3% GDP growth, definitely an improvement over the 2.2% growth in September. The estimated average real GDP growth rate in the first ten months of 2015 was 2.8% year on year.

In the last two weeks of November, Retail FPI decreased by 0.3%. Prices increased in the fruit and vegetable category. Grape price increased by 47%, tomatoes by 17.3% and eggplant by 12%. Unlike other fruits, tangerines, which are late to arrive to the market, went down in price by more than 30%.