Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.7% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 3.4% real GDP increase in 2016.
In May 2016, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri declined to 3.08 GEL, which is 2.7% lower month-on-month (m/m, that is compared to April 2016), but 7% higher year-on-year (y/y, compared to May 2015). Due to seasonal factors, the Index declined m/m in all cities included in our survey (Tbilisi, Kutaisi, and Telavi), except Batumi, Georgia’s Black Sea tourism hub.
The Georgian Business Confidence Index (BCI) continues to improve. Unlike last quarter, the second-quarter increase in the index was mostly driven by a significant improvement in performance rather than in business expectations, which kept rising albeit at a marginal pace.
On June 15, 2016, ISET held a press conference to discuss recent economic indicators of Georgia. In the second quarter of 2016, the two most important economic barometers of consumer and business sentiment in Georgia – the Business Confidence Index (BCI) and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) continued to steadily improve.
In May 2016, the average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian khachapuri declined to 3.08 GEL, which is 2.7% lower month-on-month (that is compared to April 2016), but 7% higher year-on-year (compared to May 2015).