November 2014 GDP Forecast | Forecast for growth rates predicted for the second half of the year improved but still low

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11 November 2014

ISET-PI has updated its forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the September 2014 releases of various economic indicators.

Based on the data from September, we have made the sixth update of the Q3 forecast.

The Q3 growth forecast was revised upward from 2.2% to 4.1%. The third forecast for the last quarter of 2014 revised up from 0.4% to 1.1%

Meanwhile, Geostat has released the official quarterly GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2014 which is 5.5% (but this data is still preliminary and will be revised in the future).

From the start of the year, we started to draw some conclusions about the annual growth rate for 2014 (see our January and February publications for a note on the methodology). We have used the forecasts available for each quarter to predict that GDP growth in Georgia in 2014 will be 4.2%. This forecast is quite close to the estimates of EBRD and the World Bank, which are 4% and 5% annually, respectively.

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