ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2018. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Recently, Geostat has released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018. The Q3 growth rate now stands at 4.0%, which is 3.2% below ISET-PI’s last forecasted value. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first nine months of 2018 amounted to 4.9%.

ISET-PI revised its forecast of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018 to 3.7% - down from 6.4% in October.

Based on September’s data, we expect annual growth in 2018 to be 4.7%. This number is in line with the IMF’s growth forecast for 2018, but behind the NBG’s growth projections for the same period. Despite the fact that NBG’s forecast of real GDP growth for 2018 remained unchanged at 5.5%, IMF has cut its economic growth forecast for Georgia from 5.5% to 5.0%. The revision occurred in the wake of economic difficulties in the region and the pending (or already enacted) credit restrictions that have put pressure on consumption and investment.