ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2019. These are the main features of this month’s release:
Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018, and their estimated growth stands at 4.8%, which is 1.1 percentage point above ISET-PI’s most recent forecast.
Utilizing the latest data, real annual GDP growth in 2018 amounted to 4.8%. It is notable that by March of 2018, our model predicted 4.8% real growth in the “middle-of-the-road” scenario that now perfectly coincides with the official statistics. Moreover, our annual GDP forecasts of 4.7% (since November) and 4.6% (since December), equally were revealed to be quite accurate.
ISET-PI’s forecast for the first quarter of 2019 now stands at 4.1% - up from 3.1% in January. The second-quarter growth forecast currently stands at 4.2%.
Based on the data from December, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.1% in the worst-case scenario, and 5.2% in the best-case or an average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the-road scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 4.4% increase in real GDP.
20
November
2024
GeoStat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for September 2024, which stands at 8.3%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first, second, and third quarters of 2024 reached 8.4%, 9.6%, and 11.1%, respectively. Consequently, the average real GDP growth from January to September 2024 reached 9.8%.
25
October
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for July 2024, which stands at 13%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first and second quarters of 2024 reached 8.4% and 9.6%, respectively. Consequently, the average real GDP growth from January to August 2024 reached 10%.
23
September
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for July 2024, which stands at 13%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first and second quarters of 2024 reached 8.4% and 9.5%, respectively. As a result, the average real GDP growth from January to July 2024 was 9.7%.
22
July
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for May 2024, which stands at 9.2%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first quarter of 2024 reached 8.4%, which is 0.6 ppt higher than the previous estimate. As a result, the average real GDP growth for January - May 2024 reached 9.3%.
24
June
2024
Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for April 2024, which stands at 11.8%. In addition, the estimated growth for the first quarter of 2024 reached 7.8%.
