ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020. The highlights of this month’s release are as follows:

The real GDP growth rate reached 5.7% y/y in October 2019. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first ten months of 2019 was 5.1%.

ISET-PI’s real GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2019 remains at 4.4%.

Based on October’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.9%.

ISET-PI’s forecast for Q1 2020 GDP growth is 4.2%.

Based on October’s data, the growth forecast for 2019-2020 remains largely stable. While changes in the current GDP forecast do not appear to be significant, a number of variables deserve our attention. In particular favorable economic conditions in the wider region, improved external statistics for Georgia increased national and foreign currency deposits, and inflation rate above the targeted value all have influenced the GDP growth forecast.