July 2019 GDP Forecast | Georgia’s economy in May: So far so good, but the “Gavrilov effect” is not in the data yet

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08 July 2019

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second and third quarters of 2019. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

ISET-PI’s growth projections for the second and third quarters of 2019 were revised upward by less than 0.1 percentage points. They now stand at 4.8% and 7.5% respectively.

Geostat has increased the estimate of the average real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2019 to 4.9% (by around 0.2 percentage points).

Recently, Geostat published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for May 2019, which now stands at 4.7%. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first five months of 2019 is 4.9%.

Based on May’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 5.5% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.9% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 5.6% real GDP growth in 2019.

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