Indexes
The November CCI data has all but reversed the uptick of confidence observed in October. The Consumer Confidence Index, which began to decline about a year ago, now seems to be stabilizing at a new and lower level. The breakdown of the index between different gender and educational groups suggests that intensive media coverage of particular issues and the diversity of information sources with different biases can significantly influence consumer confidence.
October CCI data suggest that consumers are finally sensing the end of the economic turbulence through which Georgia has been ploughing the last 12 months. Driven by a strong improvement in expectations, the CCI added 4.1 points, to reach -36.2 points. While assessment of the present situation remained fairly stagnant (up 2 points), consumer expectations soared (up 6.3 points).
In September 2015, the consumer confidence index experienced another drop of 2 points, crossing the -40 points margin to reach yet another historical minimum of -40.4 points. Responses to the question about making major purchases was the primary driver of this relatively modest decrease.
After several months of incremental improvements, Consumer Confidence Index dropped 4.1 points in August 2015, to reach a new historical minimum of -38.4 points. Interestingly, this entire drop was driven by older respondents (aged over 35).
After four consecutive months during which we have been observing some improvement in consumer confidence, in July 2015 the CCI dropped 4 points to -34.4 points. This setback is particularly disheartening given that in June the CCI increased by a solid 4.7 points (the present situation component of the CCI added 8.5 points – the largest increase since the CCI survey’s launch three years ago).