Indexes

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 2.1% in July 2016, while the growth rate for Q2 stood at 2.3% year over year (YoY). The estimated second quarter growth was thus 1.6 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter.

According to Geostat estimates, real GDP grew by 4.3% year over year (YoY) in April 2016. Although the growth rate showed an upward trend from the beginning of the year, the ISET-PI forecast for Q2 and Q3 has remained at 4.2% and 4.3%, the same as in previous predictions. This means that the real growth rate is expected to stabilize at the 4-4.5% level in the next months.

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 3.4% in March, while the growth rate for Q1 stood at 2.3% year over year. The estimated first quarter growth was 0.5 percentage points less than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter. We have updated our forecast for Q2 based on the new information and lowered it from 5% to 4.2%; at the same time, the Q3 forecast was revised upward to 4.3%.

According to GeoStat estimates, real GDP grew by 2.6% year over year in February 2016. This growth rate is an improvement over the 0.8% growth observed in the previous months. Still, in order to reach the predicted quarterly 2.9% growth (the ISET-PI forecast for Q1 real growth), the economy would have to have expanded by at least 5.4% in March. While the actual growth for March is likely to be lower than that figure, the increases in the consumer and business confidence indices (CCI, BCI) in the last month can be interpreted as good signs for the economy going forward.

According to GeoStat data, real GDP growth was 0.8% in January and 2.8% in February 2016. While these figures are by no means high, growth rates in the rest of the region are expected to be quite low this year. In this respect, in contrast to its neighbors, Georgia is performing reasonably well.