This note provides an overview of recent developments regarding Georgia’s foreign exchange Gross International Reserves (GIR), offers insights into some aspects of reserve adequacy, and central bank’s safeguards principles in the context of heightened political uncertainties. It appears that the GIR are likely inadequate to withstand prolonged political uncertainties. Furthermore, the National Bank of Georgia's (NBG) governance and regulatory frameworks are not presently equipped to counter these challenges.
The political and social turmoil surrounding the 26 October parliamentary elections and their aftermath have significant implications for Georgia's business environment. The prolonged polarization, government-led violence against protesters, and the suspension of EU accession talks create uncertainty that can negatively influence the economic climate in multiple ways.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury recently imposed sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire widely regarded as Georgia's de facto ruler and the honorary chair of the Georgian Dream party. These measures, which include asset freezes and travel bans, aim to address democratic backsliding in Georgia and Ivanishvili's personal role in the country's perceived drift toward Russian influence.
In the globally very turbulent 2024, Georgia was under the spotlight in the global arena, but not for a good reason and with nothing to celebrate. On the contrary, this spotlight was earned by its government’s risky shift away from the EU trajectory and, post the 26 October Parliamentary election, the powerful, non-stop peaceful street protests of the pro-European population in the capital Tbilisi and other cities, those demanding free and fair new elections.
Following the announcement of suspending EU integration, the level of polarization escalated rapidly, reaching its highest point in recent periods, which was maintained at the beginning of December. Traditionally, the polarization index decreases toward the end of the year as political activity subsides with the approach of the New Year. However, despite a slight decline, the polarization level at the end of the current year remained significantly higher than in the same period of previous years.