In recent years, a tendency on the part of different authorities to consolidate has been noted worldwide. Competition agencies are merging with consumer protection agencies and/or regulators in order to establish more effective and less expensive public systems. Accordingly, since the first roundtable meeting on the optimal design of a competition agency, held in February 2003, OECD has organized two more roundtables concerning changes in the institutional design of competition authorities in less than one year – one in December 2014, and one in June 2015.

According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 1.5% in September 2016, while the growth rate for Q3 stood at 2.2% year over year (YoY). The estimated third-quarter growth was thus 1.3 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter. One should note that the data from September are likely to include a very high services component (revenues from the tourism sector). Therefore, the quarterly growth number is likely to be revised upward in the future as more data comes in.

On November 10, ISET hosted an EBRD group with a keynote speaker, Alexander Plekhanov, Deputy Director of Research at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London. He presented the EBRD’s Transition Report, entitled “Transition for All: Equal Opportunities in an Unequal World”.

Based on the latest data, the updated annual GDP growth projection is 3.4%. It is noteworthy that the model starts to provide the most accurate annual estimate in September when seven months of data is available on core explanatory variables.

The growth forecast for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016 were revised upward by 0.5%. They now stand at 4.7% and 4.8% respectively. Based on the available data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 3.7%. This is our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters). Annual real GDP growth is predicted to be 2.9% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.4% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).