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The CCI is getting back on track. The highly anticipated decline observed last month has been reversed. The Consumer Confidence Index has increased from -32.5 in October to -31 in November (by 1.5 index points).
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The global economy continues to recover in Q3 2021 following the deep economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The growth accelerated as a result of the easing of virus- containment restrictions in most countries. According to the IMF forecast (October 2021), global GDP will grow 5.9% year over year (y/y), which is a downward adjustment from the previous estimate of 6% (July 2021).
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The CCI is falling again. After the increase of consumer confidence in September, it dropped to a level similar to June, before the trend had reversed over the remaining summer months. The CCI decreased from -29.5 in September to -32.5 in October, with both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index moving downwards.
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The CCI is catching up. After decreasing consumer confidence during the summer, the CCI rose by 4.7 index points in September (from -34.2 in August to -29.5 in September). Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index moved upwards in tandem. The Present Situation Index increased by 3 index points, and the Expectations Index by 6.3.
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Consumer confidence decreases over the summer. After the upward trend observed starting in April, consumer confidence fell in July and August to almost equal levels, with a slight increase in August. In July, the overall index decreased by 2.3 points, from -32.1 in June to -34.4 in July. In August, it slightly increased to -34.2.