In October 2014, Georgia’s GDP growth slowed to 3.5% from 4.1% the month before. This slowdown is consistent with ISET-PI’s GDP forecast, according to which the economy is expected to increase by only 3.6% in the fourth quarter. Annual growth, however, is likely to be closer to the 5% mark. Given the sluggish growth dynamics of the global economy in 2014, this is a strong result for Georgia.

In the past two weeks, Georgians have been waking up with a sense of déjà vu. In a matter of days, the Georgian currency lost over 8% of its value against the US dollar and reversed the course of appreciation against the euro. The lari winter blues are reminiscent of the last months of 2013, when, after a long period of stability, the lari lost about 5% of its value against the dollar in the course of ten weeks.

Agriculture makes an important contribution to economic development in Georgia. Value added in agriculture accounted for 9.3% of Georgian GDP in 2013 and 53.4% of employment (World Bank, 2014a). Agriculture also provides an essential basis for the food, beverages and tobacco processing industries, which together accounted for just over one-third of value added in manufacturing in Georgia in 2010.

Over the last weekend, I was invited by an international development bank to run a workshop in the nice Hotel Eden in Kvareli, Kakheti. The topic of the workshop was “Georgia’s economic future”.

The Georgian economy’s growth rate appeared to slow down in September. According to Gaostat’s rapid estimates forecast, the real growth of GDP decreased to 4.1%. This estimate is the lowest this year since April when the growth rate fell to 2.7%. The ISET Leading Economic Indicators index warned about a possible slowdown of the economy in the third quarter, citing, in particular, the significant decline in exports that began in August 2014.