ISET

ISET-PI has updated its forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the November 2014 releases of various economic indicators.

• Based on the November data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 3.6% to 3.9%.
• The second forecast for the first quarter of 2015 increased from the initial 3.2% to 3.7%.
• For the first time since June 2013, Geostat’s “rapid estimate” of monthly growth is negative, with GDP growth for November estimated at -0.5%.
• We started drawing conclusions about the annual growth rate for 2014 at the beginning of the year. Using official Geostat quarterly growth estimates (when available), we arrive at a 5.4% GDP growth forecast for 2014. If we instead use the predictions generated by our model, namely the 5th vintages of growth forecasts for each quarter, then the annual growth prediction for 2014 falls to 5.1%. At the same time, the Georgian government’s official forecast is 5% economic growth for 2014. Download the full report

ISET-PI has updated its forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the October 2014 releases of various economic indicators. 

• Based on the October data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 1.1% to 3.6%.
• We have started to forecast the first quarter of 2015, with the initial forecast standing at 3.2%.
• Meanwhile, Geostat’s “rapid estimate” growth forecast for the month of October is 3.5%.
• We started drawing conclusions about the annual growth rate for 2014 at the beginning of the year (see our January and February publications for a note on our methodology). We used the forecasts available for each quarter to predict that Georgia’s GDP growth in 2014 will be 5.3%. This figure is quite close to the official 5% annual growth forecast made by the Georgian government. Download the full report

ISET-PI has updated its forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the September 2014 releases of various economic indicators.
• Based on the data from September, we have made the sixth update of the Q3 forecast. The Q3 growth forecast was revised upward from 2.2% to 4.1%.
• The third forecast for the last quarter of 2014 revised up from 0.4% to 1.1%
• Meanwhile, Geostat has released the official quarterly GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2014 which is 5.5% (but this data is still preliminary and will be revised in the future).
• From the start of the year, we started to draw some conclusions about the annual growth rate for 2014 (see our January and February publications for a note on the methodology). We have used the forecasts available for each quarter to predict that GDP growth in Georgia in 2014 will be 4.2%. This forecast is quite close to the estimates of EBRD and the World Bank, which are 4% and 5% annually, respectively.

Our Partners