ISET

ISET-PI has updated its Georgian real GDP growth rate forecast for the first and second quarters of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

The annual real GDP growth for 2019 amounted to 5.2%, while the real GDP growth rate reached 5.1% year-on-year for January 2020.

Before taking into consideration the negative consequences of COVID-19 on the real GDP growth forecast, ISET-PI predicted 4.7% and 5.4% growth for the first and second quarters of 2020 respectively, based on data from January 2020.

Consequently, the annual growth in 2020 was expected to be 4.8% in the worst-case scenario, and 5.9% in the best-case or an average long-term growth scenario. Our middle-of-the-road scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicted a 5.2% increase in real GDP.

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

GeoStat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2019. Their estimated growth stands at 5.3%, which is 0.7 percentage points above ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. The annual real GDP growth for 2019 amounted to 5.2%.

The real GDP growth rate reached 5.1% year-on-year for January 2020.

ISET-PI’s forecast for the first quarter of 2020 now stands at 4.9%—up from 4.3% in January. The second quarter growth forecast currently stands at 5.6%.

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2019 (the final update) and the first quarter of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2019, and their estimated growth stands at 5.3%, which is 0.7 percentage points above ISET-PI’s most recent forecast.

The real GDP growth rate reached 3.8% year-on-year for December 2019.

Utilizing the latest data, annual real GDP growth in 2019 amounted to 5.2% (the first rapid estimate). By February of 2019 (the very first forecast), our model predicted 4.4% and 5.2% real growth in the “middle-of-the-road” and “best-case” scenarios respectively . Moreover, our annual GDP forecasts of 4.9% (since November) and 5% (in January, very last forecast), were revealed to be quite accurate.

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