In June 2018, FRUIT prices continued their recent declining trend — the m/m change last month was equal to negative 8.0% (the largest drop since May 2017). Consequentially, the y/y change in FRUIT prices also shrunk to +4.7%, after minor increase in May 2018.

On the product level, all fruits but citrus and grapes became cheaper in June 2018. Cherry prices were almost halved compared to the prior month, while peach and nectarine prices lost roughly 40% of their May values. The latter is not surprising, taking into account that it is high season for these stone fruits, and peaches are a perishable product, forcing farmers to supply their harvest to the national and international market (in June 2018, Georgia’s peach and nectarine exports exceeded 1.3 million USD, according to the Ministry of Finance of Georgia) in large amounts in a short period of time.

In June 2018, the AGRIndex declined by -2.54%. The main driver of this change was a -16.0% fall in VEGETABLE prices. FRUIT (-8.0%) prices also fell significantly, while MEAT (-0.1%) prices were practically unchanged, and DAIRY products gained +1.9% of their May 2018 prices.

In y/y terms, after a steady decline since last November, the gap between the current AGRIndex and its 12-month-old counterpart widened again and reached +2.49% in May 2018.

Highest increase: In June 2018, and likewise in the previous month, citrus fruits were the biggest price-gainers. Orange prices increased by almost 17%, while lemon prices increased by nearly 15%. Furthermore, in total, in the last 12 months, lemon prices have added almost half to their June 2017 values, probably due to the sharp drop in production (1.4 thousand tons in 2017, versus 3.0 thousand tons in 2016, according to GeoStat).

In May 2018, VEGETABLE prices decreased for the second consecutive month, and the m/m decline in prices (-11.1%) dropped to their lowest value since last July. As a result, the y/y change in VEGETABLE prices, after a small upward change in April, shrank again and was reduced to negative 9.8%. Interestingly, the y/y change was positive until the end of 2017, but remained negative from the beginning of the current year.

On the product level, all of the prices of greens, which the AGRIndex tracks, increased; green haricot beans prices increased the most. This legume vegetable price added almost one-fourth to its May 2017 value in the last 12 months’ time, which is consistent with the 35% decline of green haricot bean production in 2017 (2,900 tons, GeoStat), compared to 2016 (4,500 tons, GeoStat). The same logic, but the opposite result, is also true for garlic. The price of garlic dropped by 22%, the largest drop since the last May, while production increased by 20.7% (2,900 tons in 2016, and 3,500 tons in 2017, according to GeoStat).

In May 2018, the AGRIndex fell by -4.2% - the biggest decline since May 2016 (interestingly, the biggest m/m drop in prices in 2017 was also observed in May). DAIRY prices lost as much as 14.8% of their April values, while VEGETABLE prices decreased by 11.1%. On the other hand, MEAT (-0.7%) prices changed only slightly, and FRUIT (-0.1%) prices were practically unchanged.

In y/y terms, AGRIndex continued its latest trend and reached a 17-month low of +2.0% in May 2018.

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