Between August 2014 and May 2015, international wheat prices declined by 18%, rice prices dropped by 14% and maize prices declined by 6% (World Bank, 2015). This decreased prices are expected to be transmitted from international to domestic consumer prices of food items (e.g., wheat flour, bread). However, there are many factors that hinder this transmission process.

According to data from the last two weeks of April, retail food prices are down 4.6% y/y (compared to April 2015) and 0.6% m/m (compared to March 2016). During these two weeks, we have seen the biggest drops in the prices of eggplants (21.4%), buckwheat (9.4%), and tomato (9.0%). Only one (!) product increased in price during this period: greens (up 3.8%).

Retail food prices decreased by 1.3% y/y and 0.2% m/m. Compared to the end of March, the biggest drops in prices happened in the vegetable category: eggplants are down by 11.8%; cucumbers by 11.2%; and cabbage by 5.3%.

The average cost of cooking one standard portion of Imeretian Khachapuri stood at 3.61 GEL in January 2016. This is 4.3% lower m/m (compared to December 2015), and 6% higher y/y (compared to the same month of the previous year, January 2015). Thus, annual inflation, as measured by ISET’s Khachapuri index, is roughly in line with the official estimate of 6%, based on GeoStat’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Soon the Georgian Parliament will be discussing a small but important change, which will affect something as significant and vital as bread, along with pasta, khachapuri, and anything made with wheat flour. The Georgian legislators will be considering a law, according to which flour fortification will become mandatory in Georgia.