Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly affected nearly every aspect of the global economy, from food and energy security to supply chains and financial markets. The World Bank (June 2022) estimates that the 2021 5.5% rebound global growth is therefore expected to drop to 2.9% y/y in 2022.
Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2022. The estimated growth stands at 14.6%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2022 reached 16.3%.
For the Georgian economy, 2021 was a year of gradual recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. According to Geostat rapid estimates, the real GDP expanded by 10.7%, coming within 0.1 percentage points of the ISET-PI forecast from November 2021 and surpassing the NBG and IMF mid-year projections, which ranged between 8% - 8.5% y/y.
Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2021, and their estimated growth stands at 9.5%, which is 1.4 percentage points below the ISET-PI’s most recent forecast. The annual real GDP growth in 2021 amounted to 10.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than our recent prediction.
Recently, Geostat revised upward its real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2021 to 9.1% (by 0.1 ppt). The real GDP growth rate amounted to 12% year-on-year for November 2021. Consequently, the estimated real GDP growth for the first eleven months of 2021 was 10.7%.